Breakouts versus False Breakouts
Price can only reverse in two ways:
- A failed break — often called a “sweep,” “look above/below,” or “liquidity raid”
- A failed swing — a lower high or higher low that signals a change in direction
The challenge most traders face is telling the two apart in the moment.
The 70% Problem
It is widely cited that around 70% of breakouts fail — and that figure is broadly accurate for traders who act on the break itself, without waiting for confirmation.
Barky’s BT (Backtest) and RT (Reversal Trigger) concepts exist precisely to solve this. Rather than acting on the break, the method waits for price to return and confirm the level — a step that transforms a low-probability guess into a high-probability, risk-defined entry.
Confirmed breakouts, using Barky’s BT entry method, pay out approximately 97% of the time.
Using the Indicator
When price breaks through a significant level, the indicator marks it immediately with a BT/RT line and label.
That mark is not the entry — it is the alert. The entry comes only if price returns to backtest the EMA9 zone and holds, confirmed by price making a new high (for breakouts) or new low (for breakdowns). The stop is placed just beyond the wick of that confirmation candle.
Without that sequence, the breakout is ignored.
- Classic retest = “Did price return to the structure level I just broke?”
- 9BT = “Did price pull back to the EMA cloud after the break, and did the wick touch it?”
The 9BT is faster and works even when price never returns all the way to the original swing level (common in strong trends). It trades the dynamic value area instead of the static structure level.
The first event — the break — is marked automatically with a horizontal line and label at the broken price level, coloured green for upward breaks and red for downward breaks.
The tool then continues watching. If price pulls back and interacts with a specific reference zone — defined by two price averages running close together — that interaction is marked separately with an orange label showing the exact price at that moment. This second mark represents the retest, and is often where traders look to act.
The image below illustrates both outcomes side by side.
On the downside, price broke below a significant low and the indicator marked a red BT/RT label at that level. However, when price returned to backtest the EMA9, it failed to hold — the cloud did not support the move. With no confirmation, no short entry is taken. This is the breakdown attempt that correctly goes ignored.
On the upside, price broke above a significant level and the indicator marked a green BT/RT label. Price then pulled back, wicked into the EMA9 zone, and held — producing the orange 9BT entry label at the exact level. That confirmed backtest is the entry signal, with the stop placed below the bounce candle. The subsequent move delivered over 4R — four times the amount risked.
The difference between the two setups is not the breakout. It is what happens at the EMA9 afterwards.
What You See on the Chart
- Green lines and labels a significant level has been broken to the upside
- Red lines and labels a significant level has been broken to the downside
- Orange lines and labels price has returned and interacted with the key reference zone following a break
Keeping the Chart Clean
Only the most recent signals are displayed at any time. As new signals form, older marks are removed automatically, ensuring the chart remains uncluttered and focused on current price action.