ES_F / #NQ_F – Trade Plan Week 43

S&P 500 / Nasdaq 100 – #ES_F / #NQ_F – SPX / NDX – $SPY / $QQQ

All targets reached!

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https://thebarkworthynotes.com/category/weekly-trade-plans

The plan for last week was to see if markets could find a local bottom and for us as traders to look for early longs to participate in the backtests of the daily EMA21.

I specifically stated that above the EMA21, buyers would backtest the daily EMA9, and if that reclaimed, price would would push back towards the breakdown zones to offer trapped buyers a free exit.

Green paths projected it, markets made it happen. Trade Plan Complete, all targets reached.

PLAN FOR THIS WEEK

“Exhaust, then backtest the daily EMA9”

Despite all these fantastic intra day swings, all markets have done so far is find a higher low and bounce back into resistance for lower highs. Last week’s highs are key into the coming week as both indices reclaimed their daily EMA9 and closed right into key resistance.

The weekly timeframe is contracting and needs to attempt a higher high to initiate continuation, and despite countless calls for credit crisis, AI bubble, gold bubble, crypto bubble, housing market collapse and other economical turmoil.

Disbelief drives bull markets. The trend is ‘up’, and if we look historically, markets never ‘crashed’ when the Economist had a bearish front page.

What are the technicals?

Simple. Markets are in weekly uptrends, daily consolidations and 4 hourly uptrends. When the 4 hourly uptrend ends, indices will backtest their daily EMA9, and if buyers step in there, dip buying is back on, and markets break higher.

For the bear thesis, the green paths were the most obvious, because the EMA9 is where everybody adds. Only “failed continuation” can reverse price, and therefore, reversals first initiate when the projected green paths fail to make new highs and hold those. If that happens, price will likely continue price discovery sideways, but the ranges are big, and the first real sellers could step in now.

KEY LEVELS FOR THIS WEEK

• Weekly Level 1 – Bullish above: ES $6702 / NQ $24878
• Weekly Level 2 – Bull/bear line: ES $6590 / NQ $24447
• Weekly Level 3 – Key support: ES $6479 / NQ $23971

• Bullish continuation triggers: ES $6768 / NQ $25179.
• Bearish reversal triggers: ES $6572 / NQ $24408.

TRADE PLAN

• The current setup is consolidation/contraction.
• As long as the daily EMA9/21 cloud supports price, break outs are in play.

Actionable Trade Plan for Monday’s Session

I typically wait for the opening range and the Asian session before creating Monday’s plan, but the daily timeframe is setting up bullish continuation perfectly. All this needs now is a look above to initiate immediate continuation.

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